GHSA semifinals: Toombs County at Dublin, Fitzgerald at Northeast - Scouting reports, predictions
By Michael A. Lough
The Sports Report
centralgasports@gmail.com
GHSA
Semifinals
Class A/Division I
🏈🏈🏈Toombs County, 11-1, at Dublin, 13-0🏈🏈🏈
Rankings/seeding: Toombs County finished the regular season ranked No. 1 in the Georgia High School Football Daily’s composite rankings, and entered the playoffs as the sixth seed. Dublin finished the regular season ranked No. 2 in the GHSFD’s composite rankings, and entered the playoffs as the second seed.
About Toombs County
Playoff scores: 62-8 over Southwest, 49-21 over Commerce, 56-17 over Elbert County
Losses: 14-7 to Savannah Christian
Head coach: Buddy Martin, 22-3, second year/overall; 1 region championship
Stat leaders: QB TJ Stanley, 153-226-8/22 TDs, 2,163 yards; RB Dabyn Wadley, 119-1,006/13 TDs; WR Lagonza Hayward, 46-665/11 TDs; S Alex Scott, 68 tackles; LB Hayden Roy, 16 tackles for loss
Playoff history: The Bulldogs are in their first semifinal, to go with six quarterfinal trips since starting in 1987. Three came in a four-year span, 1994-1997.
The 22-3 record the past two seasons is the team’s best since going 22-4 in 1994-95, in which it won two region titles and lost in the quarterfinals. This year’s team has the program record for points scored with 556, breaking last year’s mark by 70 points in one less game. The 156 points allowed ranks in the top 10.
Toombs County has been home to a few coaches with Central Georgia ties: Rex Hodges spent 1989-91 there, taking over at Dodge County in 2011; Shane Williamson was head coach from 2009-2012, and coached at two other schools before spending 2019-2022 at Hawkinsville.
The offensive line has improved, and the Bulldogs have depth and above-average chemistry under second-year head coach Martin, who has been at Toombs County for eight years. Hayward flipped from Tennessee and signed with Florida, and Stanley is headed to Georgia State.
The Bulldogs have been a AA team for most of their history, and this is their first year in Class A. They had a two-year 4-16 stretch in AAA in 2014-15.
This year’s team has a 33-29 win over Class 5A power Rome, on the road, in early September. Rome finished 8-3, losing to defending 6A champ Thomas County Central in the second round.
About Dublin
Playoff scores: 63-6 over Gordon Central, 42-7 over Jasper County, 35-13 over Thomasville
CENTRAL GEORGIA’S BEST HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL COVERAGE
This week
Last week
* Roundup, Northeast, Woodford stun top seed; Dublin cruises; Peach County falls short in fourth quarter; Houston County gets No.1-caliber game from No. 1
* Humility, confidence, persistence, curiosity, and instinct have put Northeast star running back and honor student Nick Woodford on an elite level
* Scouting Reports: This week’s GHSA games, with Sports Report and Maxwell predictions
* Monday Morning QB (Thursday edition): A notable high school weekend; Mercer’s rolling; about those college rankings; Loughdmouthings: rumors, research in the booth, Falcons, Tech-UGA
* Macon Touchdown Club players of the week
Two weeks ago
* GIAA AAAA final: Bulloch 14, FPD 10
*GIAA AA final: Brentwood 28, Southwest Georgia 6
* Roundup: Houston County, Peach County, Dublin roll; heartbreaking near misses for Jones County, Westside, Bleckley County; Woodford leads Northeast
* GIAA AAAA finals preview, FPD-Bulloch
* GIAA AA finals preview, Brentwood-Southwest Georgia
* Scouting Reports/predictions, GHSA
* Scouting Reports: This week’s GHSA games
* Maxwell Predictions
* Who’s going to win this week’s games, Thursday
* Monday Morning Quarterback: Watch big Willie’s run; a Friday night of some surprises; go watch Mercer; Loughdmouthings: Watch a HS game; ranking whines, flubbin’ Falcons …
* Macon Touchdown Club players of the week
* GHSA, GIAA playoff schedule
Losses: None
Head coach: Roger Holmes, 206-73-1, 23rd season; 279-122-1, 34th season overall (Beech, Tenn.); 10 region championships, 2 state championships
Stat leaders: QB Micah O’Neal, 29-58-1/8 TDs, 486 yards; RB Willie Batts, 114-1,295/16 TDs; WR Sirius Tolbridge 11-22/3 TDs; LB Xavier Bostic, 62 tackles, 16 tackles for loss; DL QuanTavis Lovett, 6 sacks; DB Tolbridge, 5 INTs
Playoff history: The Irish have missed the playoffs only three times since Holmes’ debut in 2002, and have reached the finals three times, winning in 2019 and tying Charlton County in 2006
The Irish have scored 640 points, third-best in program history, behind the 2019 champs and 2006 co-champs. The 167 points allowed rank seventh-best under Holmes.
The offensive line has had a solid year, keyed by progress of guard Jayden O’Neal. Defensive end QuanTavious Lovett grew to be an impact player on a defense that gave up 81 points in the first three games, and then 27 points in the next six games. It’s allowed only 26 in the playoffs.
The Wing-T is cruising along at almost warp speed, with fairly absurd depth, and the defense is steady, all boosted by a veteran staff that has successful former head coaches.
Scouting report
Toombs County will make some sort of history against Dublin by just being competitive. The Irish have won all nine meetings, from 1992-2018, and only one has been by single digits (21-14 in 2009), with four by 30 points or more. The Bulldogs haven’t cracked the 20-point mark, but then again, the teams haven’t played since Dublin’s 49-14 win in the 2018 first round.
The Bulldogs have won three playoff games by an average of 40.3 points, two more points than the Irish’s average, against slightly better competition.
Dublin is on a serious roll, on both sides. The defense may be a little underrated, in part because the schedule has been so-so. But Dublin has only been threatened once, in a 17-7 win over region rival Northeast, a game in which the Irish outgained the Raiders 315-196 and held co-semifinalist Northeast out of the end zone twice late when the Raiders got inside the 10.
Both defenses will be tested by deep backfields.
Toombs County has five running backs, a group that has some explosion, but not as much as Dublin’s committee of Willie Batts, Xavier Bostic, Trav Bostic, Micah O’Neal, and Azontae Walker, all of whom average at least 7.7 yards a carry and who have combined for a whopping 65 touchdowns.
The Bulldogs have a major edge in the passing game, which makes comebacks more workable.
Neither team has had many challenges, so anybody in an early hole has to stay patient. The stress comes with a two-touchdown margin in the second half. Dublin can gobble up clock, Toombs County can cover ground quicker.
Who can handle adversity wins.
Maxwell Ratings/Georgia High School Football Daily prediction: Toss up.
The Sports Report: The computer spitting out a toss-up is fitting, because this is a matchup of the two best teams in the class, who spent most of the season 1-2 in the GHSFBD’a composite rankings. All of those things mentioned above are relevant.
Dublin was in a huge region that sent seven teams to the playoffs, while everybody in Toombs County’s region advanced, with Savannah Christian losing to a AA team in the private A-3A playoffs.
But the Irish haven’t gone against a passing offense as good as Toombs County’s, one that can turn yards into points. Dublin has faced some nice passers with nice yardage, but the top three in yardage have 43 touchdown passes and 20 interceptions to Stanley’s 27 and 8.
It’s easy to figure at some point, the passing game would be the difference in a Dublin game, but it hasn’t yet.
Pick: Dublin by 4
🏈🏈🏈Fitzgerald, 10-3, at Northeast, 11-2 (Thompson)🏈🏈🏈
Rankings/Seeding: Fitzgerald ended the regular season ranked No. 6 in the GHSFD’s composite rankings, and entered the playoffs as the 12th seed. Northeast ended the regular season ranked No. 5 1 in the GHSFD’s composite rankings, and entered the playoffs as the eighth seed.
About Fitzgerald
Playoff scores: 42-1 over Rabun County, 28-24 over Bleckley County, 42-38 over Worth County
Losses: 19-13 to Irwin County, 23-8 to Thomasville, 26-20 to Jeff Davis
Head coach: Tucker Pruitt, 82-26, eighth season/overall; 2 region championships, 1 state championship
Stat leaders: No stats available
Playoff history: Fitzgerald has made the postseason every year since 2000. After winning the 1948 Class A championship, the Purple Hurricane didn’t make the state playoffs again until 1964, losing in the championship game. Notably, the program had made the semifinal 18 times since 1930, and lost first-round games only six times.
This is nothing new for Fitzgerald, which has reached the semifinals in six of Tucker Pruitt’s eight seasons. The Purple Hurricane went that far four times under his dad Robby in 11 seasons, including in 2001 with Tucker at quarterback. That’s where he was in 2003 in Warner Robins when the Pruitts moved north for a season before returning to Fitzgerald.
For all of the program’s success, the state title in 2021 was Fitzgerald’s first since 1948, breaking a streak of six championship-game losses. But the Purple Hurricane are now a regular preseason favorite to make a run to the final.
About Northeast
Playoff scores: 46-7 over Swainsboro, 21-0 over Lamar County, 48-39 over Fannin County
Losses: 40-21 to 3A Peach County, 17-7 to Dublin
Head coach: Jeremy Wiggins, 53-28, 7th season/overall
Stat leaders: QB Reginald Glover, 79-145-3/14 TDs, 1,049 yards; RB Nick Woodford, 208-2,168/33 TDs; WR Zakhie Denson 22-334/4; LB Santana Balkcom, 99 tackles; LB Tailen Sampson, 17 tackles for loss; DB Kortnei Williams, 10 INTs.
Playoff history: It took Northeast 22 seasons before its first playoff trip, and nine more seasons before its second. After two straight first-round wins, in 2001-02, the Raiders lost eight straight first-round game, but are 7-3 in the last five trips, with a quarterfinal trip in 2021 that ended with a heartbreaking 12-9 overtime loss to Swainsboro, this year’s first-round victim. Fitzgerald ended Northeast’s season 35-18 in the second round in 2020. Appling County, on a weather-challenged day, hammered Northeast 49-0 in last year’s first round.
The Raiders have established a level of consistency uncommon in Bibb County, winning at least eight games five straight years, a first among the six county public high schools (since 1970).
Attention has been on the offense the past few years, with running back Nick Woodford and quarterback Reginald Glover, but the defense has made strides. In three of the last four seasons, they’ve given up less than 200 points, including 192 this year. Only three teams have scored at least 30 points on Northeast, one being Peach County (in the opener, minus Woodford). Top-seeded Fannin County’s 39 points were nine too few as Northeast had a season-high 48 points.
A few injuries and departures this season ended up not interrupting the Raiders historic run to their first semifinal.
They’re trying to be the first Bibb County team since 1975 to reach the final. Central went 11-1 in 1975, beating Douglass 21-14 for the Class AAA title.
Scouting report
The teams have played three times since 2020. Fitzgerald won 35-18 in the 2020 second round, and 28-27 in early 2022, with Northeast knocking off the top-ranked hosts 27-20 in 2023.
Older defenders for Northeast have played against the run-heavy Wing-T of Fitzgerald, and had some success. Fitzgerald was held to its lowest point total at home in the 2023 loss. The Purple Hurricane have been held below their scoring average in the last two meetings.
Both teams have close win against the lone common opponent, Bleckley County. Northeast nipped the region rivals 33-30 in the middle of the season, and Fitzgerald came back for a 28-24 win in the second round.
Fitzgerald doesn’t post stats on MaxPreps, nor submit numbers to the GHSFD’s statewide list, and attempts this week to get stats and starters were unsuccessful. The offense is simple: It’s own version of a clock-eating Wing-T.
QB Copeland ran for 417 yards and three touchdowns to lead the comeback from 38-21 down last week against Worth County, after rushing for 128 yards in their first meeting this season. He picked up 128 yards on 11 carries in the first-round win over Rabun County, and ran for 101 in the comeback win over Bleckley County.
While Copeland was running over Worth County, Northeast’s Nick Woodford was doing the same to Fannin County, going for 375 yards and four touchdowns to go over 2,000 for the season.
Both teams travel by run first, but have shown some ability to throw. Northeast’s Reginald Glover has an advantage, going over the 1,000-yard mark in passing last week, now sitting with 1,049 yards on 54.5-percent completions, and 14 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. He has run for 1,140 yards and 13 touchdowns. The junior is a little underrated as a passer, having completed 57.8 percent for 2,761 yards, 40 touchdowns, and only five interceptions as a three-year starter.
With both teams loading up against the run, the ability to pass is likely going to be the difference. Not necessarily big plays – though Glover can go deep, to Zakhie Denson and Keandre Jackson – but the mid-range passing game, and avoided forced passes. Glover has shown good decision-making in taking off out of the pocket and not forcing it.
Kortnei Williams has 10 interceptions for Northeast, which will rely on big games from linebackers Santana Balkcom and Tailen Sampson plus linemen Amari White and Harold Simms, among others, to slow down Fitzgerald at the point of attack.
The ability to convert points after touchdowns, for one or two points, will be big, and Northeast will face its weekly battle against double-digit 5-yard penalties, and flags in general. The Raiders have some familiarity with the offense, but teams have had familiarity against a well-run Wing-T and lost. Mistakes and fundamentals become more important.
Maxwell Ratings/Georgia High School Football Daily prediction: Northeast 21, Fitzgerald 19
The Sports Report: It’s usually easy to pick the established program used to decades of success to knock off a Bibb County team, the county struggling to establish that consistent success. Northeast has passed the point of being overly impressed by rankings or records, its 17-7 loss at Dublin serving as an example. The passing game will be huge in impact, but based on efficiency.
In the past two seasons, Northeast is 4-2 against ranked teams. The Raiders are ready.
Pick: Northeast by 5