Column: Your better-late-than-never college football season preview - yeah - for UGA, Tech, Mercer, FVSU, SEC, ACC, nation, as well as a team out west
By Michael A. Lough
The Sports Report
centralgasports@gmail.com
A few games are in the books – and I’ve seen very little, as far as the state g0es – but that doesn’t change my longstanding views. Like what’s below, which was pretty much written in August. Contrary to the blathering on the airwaves and increasingly credibility-challenged “writers” online, not much really changes until it does.
So, what we have here are the original observations, and an update (life can sure delay things, can’t it?). If my mind changes – such mental flexibility is a positive – I’ll say so. No problem admitting being wrong. Yes, attendance at such meetings is sparse, in part because few put their thought down in written form, thus demanding accountability. The meetings for those with accountability of thought are pretty lean, too.
Remember, it’s a good thing to be unclenched and open-minded, and to not be triggered or find the keeps-you-whining-and-kinda-miserable most wrong take on almost everything.
(Note that this is posted at 1:45 p.m. on Saturday, Sept. 23 – yeah, it’s odd, I gotcha – before the day’s action with the cited teams really got going. And get comfy)
Georgia
Yes, Georgia can repeat. Yes, it’d be almost –almost – surprising if they didn’t.
But please, insecure fans and mediafans and “media”, stop immaturely/unprofessionally taking it so personally when somebody has another view. Remember, you’ve been wrong from 1982-2020 on the Dogs and a national title chase, and those predicting somebody else have been right. Hitting 2-for-that-long doesn’t put you in the lineup.
Logic: The offense will have hiccups. Duh. New quarterback and offensive coordinator, and some backs and some linemen and on the edge.
As it always does – always – in transition, Georgia won’t look like Georgia has looked for awhile. There are, of course, no garuantees, but odds are they’ll be rolling pretty good by the second half of the season.
Note that Brock Bowers is unlikely to have the same season, or same type of season, because of that. Hopefully, assorted goobs in the crowd – which in this particular situation is about 34 percent of the fan base – will realize how actually good Stetson Bennett really was, and the magic put together on offense by Todd Monken, in large part because of Bennett.
Remember that part above about being open-minded and unclenched? It’s a positive to admit you were wrong. It’s hard to be taken seriously when one doesn’t.
Carson Beck will not have the same connection with Bowers, certainly not early on. It should get better, but between a new QB, a new OC, no Darnell Washington, and an over-hyped – because most hype is over-hype – receiver group, and defenses confident on doubling Bowers more and rushing the QB more, Georgia’s offense will have many rough patches.
The defense will be good, the defense again won’t have too many challenges. But it’s about time for the challenges to win a little. Tennessee is the best bet.
And note that Georgia has a new players in different spots, as well as position changes. Makes a difference.
Tennessee has closed the gap. South Carolina might have, but it’s still a hefty gap. I still think Florida will be better than people think. By the Cocktail Party, barring the whining having an effect on players, the Gators should be decent enough to keep it a game through halftime. Kentucky will again be a pest and annoy, but not enough to win.
And the West rep is likely capable of beating Georgia.
Now, go find some “coverage” from some of the “media” for the hug and whispers of comfort you need while giving the “reality” portion of the brain a rest.
After Week 1: Nothing has changed. Fans need Xanax. Fans always need Xanax, among other medicinals.
The fan base is only a little foggier than the “media” in a refusal or inability to exhibit patience and/or objectivity. New QB is a new QB = transition. Ditto a new OC. And a new kicker. No, not all signees are future pros.
Note that other teams work to improve, too. Note that Georgia has for the most part avoided an injury bug the past few years – which affects plenty - and that is among the things that can easily catch up to Georgia this year (like all new starters being as good from the start as the old starters).
It’s all common sense.
Georgia Tech
I have a friend who’se a not-very-bright-usually Tech and Falcons fan- ah, I kid him - and I’ll have two bets with him.
Georgia Tech can go 5-7, and be a 7-5 or 8-4 team. The Jackets will play good enough football to stir the memories of the GOWPWM – grumpy old white people with money – of whom 39 percent paid for the money seats we see empty on TV to show up more.
Not all whatever-the-record seasons are the same. The same record as last year, for whomever, can mean different things.
Tech can go 5-7 and it feel a whole lot better if it can win some games that were close losses, and cut in half the margin of blowout losses, and take the upper-level conference teams deep into the fourth quarter.
The Jackets will be an underdog in most games, and, well, they’re not beating Georgia and not winning at Clemson, and likely not beating Mississippi. They’ll be fairly stiff underdogs against North Carolina and Miami, but both are beatable.
After that, they’re all quite winnable. Logic indicates 6-6, but don’t be surprised with a Jackets upset and 7-5.
The bottom line, though, is that Brent Key and Co. have pressure-washed the stink of Waffle House Boy off of the program. Not 100 percent, but enough to where Tech fans will cringe a lot less.
They have just an ol’ ball coach in charge, somebody the players can take seriously. It will lead to better football. Maybe not a bunch more wins just yet, but much better football. And that’s progress.
After three games: Little has changed. Sure, the record is the same, and the Louisville game was an odd one, Tech turning a budding blowout into a tight game. The Mississippi game was a game for three-plus quarters, as opposed to a half last year. Who knows what the world will be like when Tech plays Miami – it’d be a notable upset, but doable – and Clemson? Every other game is more winnable than many guess right now.
Mercer
Drew Cronic and his staff have in fairly short order and under unique circumstances – pandemic anyone? – raised Mercer’s program to a rankable program, and one that is a legit contender for a Southern Conference title.
The Bears are bringing in – as expected, though – better talent, and Cronic has enviable staff stability. The latter is overlooked by most civilians and “media” in its importance, particularly in the transfer era.
Mercer returns the vast majority of its starters, a list that includes a good chunk who made the preseason all-conference team. That lends itself to composure and maturity, and to avoiding games like the 20-point loss at Chattanooga, and to winning those big games, like Furman (a 10-point loss in November) and Samford (double OT loss a week later to end the season).
After three games: Indeed, what wonders what Drew Cronic or Mercer did to Lane Kiffin at some point in the past to lead to 73-7.
It was certainly much worse than expected, but doesn’t really change much. If anything, it might make the Bears better because it kind of pissed them off.
Especially on defense, the area that seems to just in the least little bit found a way to slow the Bears down when it counted most. That games is easy to file away in the porcelain cabin, but expect the occasionally “73-7” mention when there’s a little slackness or lack of sharpness.
Of course, the Southern Conference has its unpredictability, but nothing has changed Mercer from being a major contender. Having two of the top three other contenders – Chattanooga and Samford – at home is huge.
Cronic has Mercer at the level boosters hoped for when restarting football, and perhaps a little ahead of schedule. The Bears have sniffed the playoffs, and this is likely the year they’ll get to breathe it in.
Fort Valley State
The latest new head coach at Fort Valley State has momentum, from a quality season to a running back that made an NFL roster as a free agent.
There seems to be a little bit different level of football being played at Fort Valley. For so long, there was a tease early, and something would then become discombobulated.
Talent can’t overcome dumb penalties and mistakes, and inconsistent fundamentals. It’s also mighty hard for a coaching staff ot be a coaching staff when the program has 30 or 40 or 50 percent of everything the better teams in the conference have.
The fan base does a lot of blathering, and, like most HBCU situations, doesn’t back it up with going to games and spending money and raising legitimate expectations of the athletics department and demanding fiscal responsibility.
Note: The SIAC claiming to be the most well-attended Division II conference in the country is quite a hoot, too.
It’d be interesting to see what might happen if fans – especially those paying for seatbacks – showed up en masse and filled up 75 percent of the home side for a few games, put the damn phones away, and got into the game.
A home-field advantage happens when people do that. Players respond. And Fort Valley State has enough good players to ride that kind of a boost into rankings, and runs to the playoffs, and taking care of things in Columbus.
FVSU’s two losses last year were by four and by 32. Who knew Benedict would be that good? The Wildcats, though, may be in the stages becoming a seven-win program and serious contender in the SIAC.
After three games: Nothing has changed. The Wildcats were challenged by Edward Waters more than they should’ve been, but eked out a win. Good teams eke out wins.
The SEC
Every year, people show why it’s a miracle stuff doesn’t collapse and people don’t walk into poles or fall down a lot.
Like thinking Alabama is done and Nick Saban has turned into Bobby Bowden at the end. Folks, keep some wishful thinking to yourself and you’ll look a whole lot smarter. It’ll be a struggle, I know.
When Saban loses more than two games by more than one possession to a .500 team, then we can start talking. We won’t be talking for awhile, and damn sure not this year.
The West has contenders Alabama, LSU, and Mississippi, with Texas A&M being confusing, and Auburn rising, and Arkansas rising.
Tennessee can beat Georgia, South Carolina can beat Tennessee, Kentucky can beat South Carolina, Florida can beat Kentucky.
It’s college football. There’s unpredictability, which we love, so quit bellyaching about unpredictability.
After Week 1: LSU is in no way out of any hunt, because nobody is going undefeated and we’re progressing to the one- and two-loss teams in the playoffs and final. LSU still, right now, is a favorite against every team on the schedule except Alabama. Period.
Say the Tigers lose to Mississippi or an improved Auburn team and beat Alabama, and say Alabama gets nicked – oops – by the same, we have an interesting West. Arkansas is capable of a surprise, Auburn is a threat to somebody, and, well, who knows what’ll happen with the Days of Our A&M Lives.
After three games: The Fisher-Petrino coupling won’t work, for all sorts of reasons. I’ll admit starting to raise an eyebrow a little bit at Nick Saban and Alabama, who could win the West or finish third. Didn’t see Florida handling Tennessee. Auburn will still be better than expected, LSU again will survive an opening loss – would people please quit losing their minds after the first damn game? – and, as predicted, the Cocktail Party will be a decent game longer than predicted.
The West will be a race, the East will be more competitive on Saturdays, though not necessarily for challenging Georgia. Yet.
The ACC
Sometimes, it’s hard to dive too much into the ACC.
There’s Clemson, and then, well, any of about eight teams that might be rising, and we have the yearly “____ is back” for Florida State and Miami.
Will North Carolina be a legit contender? Is Wake Forest a delightful and scrappy contender, or .500? Remember when Tech was up there, B.C. (Before Collins)? What happened to Virginia Tech? Wasn’t Virginia on the rise awhile back? What’s up with Louisville? Is this the year Boston College is really relevant? Syracuse? Can Pitt keep it up?
There were a lot of nice teams last year, three 8-5s and three nine-win teams, and good races in the divisions. But there wasn’t much to brag about as far as attention-getting non-conference wins.
It’s so predictable, and this year is no different. Which is predictable.
After three games: We all thought we were looking at Clemson-Florida State at the end, but now?
Maybe this year is the year of true unpredictability after all, because if Duke can take down Clemson like that, Duke can take down Florida State. The results of Saturday’s Tigers-Noles showdown will lead to a week of lip-tiring blather, no matter what, and is irrelevant by Monday. Clemson is better than the first-week panic attack suffered by people and “media”, and Florida State’s not running away with it anything at all. We still have one or two “Miami is back” games to laugh at two weeks later, until the Canes reach the ACC championship at some point.
It’s Clemson and Florida State, and a little gap after that, but it’s not an insurmountable gap. Which makes life fun.
Nationally
Sure, Georgia is No. 1, just ahead of Alabama and Ohio State and Michigan and Clemson, and a few others.
I’ve thought for 30 years that we were not far from national title matchups with a two-loss team in there, because it just seems to remarkably difficult – with a pot of gold of luck – to go undefeated.
Georgia did it. Remarkable in every form and fashion.
More teams are playoff-caliber than we’ve seen yet. Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Clemson, Florida State, Southern Cal, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame, Oregon, all and perhaps a few more have a shot, especially as the next-level favorites not named Georgia slip.
After three games: The list of teams capable of making The Other Three – I can’t see Georgia not making it, as of now, but it can change – has grown. We’re almost to the point of having enough legitimate playoff teams to fill a 12-team playoff bracket.
Almost. And nope, Texas A&M still ain’t one of ‘em.
Colorado
Indications of an open mind: Colorado’s first game under Deion Sanders was substantially better than I expected. In all phases.
Note, however, that TCU 2023 had nothing to do with TCU 2022, just like Colorado 2023 has nothing to do with Colorado 2022. The Horned Frogs poll-wise were overrated, thanks to last year, and are rebuilding, will be lucky to be .500.
Still a nice win, but no, they didn’t beat the defending runner-up team, not even close, just beat the program, which nobody expected to sniff the playoff.
A pause for a breath, because Lord have mercy, I’m tired of hearing/reading about all this for the last nine months.
The hypocrisy of throwing out religious comments and then being disrespectful, arrogant, mocking, manipulative, and, um, forgot the point.
One, a quality coach who preaches things doesn’t do to Colorado players what Sanders did. Don’t crap on people you’ve never met, whom you know nothing about.
Don’t talk about chances without giving them. Don’t talk about redemeption without allowing people the chance at it.
Don’t think throw out humble and religious talk and expect everybody to be as gullible as your constituency.
It’s OK to display maturity by hushing up a little bit. Maturity and class are better examples if setting examples for college students is the point.
Sanders talks about receipts after one game. But we’ll hear about “it’s only one game” when Colorado gets bopped. This was one game. A nice one – and yes, they had some awfully sweet plays, and you can’t not kind of love Travis Hunter, going 110 snaps, although …
More reality: Colorado went 1-11 last year. One year. That doesn’t mean he took over a 1-11 program. He took over a program that no, wasn’t good, but wasn’t a consistent cellar-dweller.
Let’s not – OK , it’s way too late – overhype anything. Colorado is 1-0. Buffs won the first game in 2020, albeit yes, a COVID year. But a first game. Over UCLA. Colorado finished 4-2. Started 3-1 in 2019. Not that long ago.
Finally, the reality is that what Sanders did at Jackson State was nice. Good. Happily accepted by JSU.
That’s it. Period. He did nothing – nothing – revolutionary, nothing worth a statue, nothing worth the level of hyperbolizing often done by HBCUs – he exposed a lot of HBCU issues, and let me tell you, there are a lot of HBCU issues that came right back – and gullible media offered us.
He was successful in a small, aspiring-to-mediocre pool. There are less than two dozen HBCUs on the FCS level, and the schedule was soft because HBCUs don’t venture out of the HBCU world.
All these absurd classics don’t tell us how good teams are on a national FCS level. Winning the HBCU national title? If that’s all you want, if your aspirations are limited, OK.
Then don’t complain when people tell you about limitations when you’ve limited yourself. Get in the playoffs, do something/anything in the playoffs on any consistent basis, and that more than anything – certainly more than a self-loving showman – will expand your brand and increase respectability.
I do hope Jackson State has a good year, so the worship talk will ease, and people might realize he didn’t really do anything unbelievable. He improved recruiting, which was needed, and then beat up on teams that weren’t improving their game. Took care of business, which doesn’t always happen.
An accomplishment, yes, but get a grip.
No, Sanders isn’t getting a bigger job, because, frankly, his health is very likely to end his coaching career prematurely. The Buffs aren’t going to revolutionize anything, and aren’t going to make noise in their new conference next year with Sanders there.
Well, there’ll be noise, but not with wins.
All that said, Colorado will have a better season than I expected. Sanders hired well, recruited well, sold well, and wouldn’t have been able to do any of this five years ago. Don’t think that point is lost here, because it’s not, not in the least.
The shtick, self-promotion, his blather, puts a target on him and his team early in a rebulding process. Confidence is good. Arrogance isn’t.
And so many transfers on hand for the coach rather than the school or program, chemistry can be an issue when things aren’t all shiny.
A 5-7 season got Mel Tucker 95 mil at Michigan State, so it’s been a program to take somewhat seriously, a program with some potential.
All sorts of the national media – typers catching up to broadcasts bozos - have lost their absolute minds in puckering up..
One game, and Colorado is a national contender. One game, and Sanders has started a multi-year run of double-digit wins. One game, and Sanders is doing what we’ve never seen before.
What, go 1-0? Because that’s all he’s done with a program off of one – one – 1-11 season.
And to only touch on, yes, a notable part of the topic, Sanders is not – not – the first Black head coach to win a football game, although don’t think for a second I don’t recognize that battle and struggle to get a fair shot, but let’s not patronize the situation, either.
He’s not the first to fire up his team with paranoia. Or console a player. Or post on social media. Or deliver a fiery speech that gets videoed for clear manipulation purposes.
So, really, people, get some semblance of a grip. I don’t wish bad on Sanders or Colorado, I wish for reality and context from one faction, and some professionalism and reality and context from another.
After three games: Oh. My. God.
People done lost their minds. A lot of media credibility is shot, there’s so much double-standard ass-kissing going on.
Epicenter of college football? Of sports? Revolutionary? “Struck fear into the college football establishment?”
The double standards of coaches-on-Friday-fans-on-Saturday is dizzying. The crap they’d criticize and never do is suddenly cool. Disrespect, showboating, self-promotion, more credit than deserved.
THREE GAMES, PEOPLE! THREEE GAMES! And two wins against teams that will struggle mightily to sniff bowl eligibility, one against a team that will show how big a fluke last year was.
It’s easier to respect Swifties coverage/obsession, because as becoming part of a cult grows so much easier for the nation’s citizens the last decade … Shoot, though, she’s done a lot more to deserve it (and no, I can’t name one song).
A mediocre program is 3-0 against three mediocre programs. Nebraska has had six straight losing seasons, hasn’t finished ranked since 2013. Two years ago, TCU was 5-7, and Gary Patterson bolted with a record of 23-25 his final four seasons. Colorado State’s last winning season was 7-6, the third straight 7-6, in 2017, Mike Bobo losing his job after following that with 3-9 and 4-8.
So, calm down, folks. Agendas aside, not a whole lot to see here just yet. Teams surprise us every year. Not news.
All that said, and I could go on and on – like those at mics and keyboards who apparently want an autographed pair of sunglasses have done for a month – and will go on and on upon request, credit is deserved.
Legitimate, lucid, clear-minded credit. And I’ve already been proven a little wrong on a few of those views.
The Buffs are a good team. Not great, not a contender for the conference title or playoff (part of the media lapdog delusion).
It’s been a longstanding personal belief that one game is one game, one year is one year. That’s not proof. Seasons are marathons, and so much can happen.
No, I didn’t think Colorado would come close to a bowl. It will. But six remaining opponents are currently ranked, and four of those games are on the road.
The Pac-12 is off to quite the start – did people know seven other teams in the conference are undefeated? – so life doesn’t get easier.
The Buffs have been fun to watch so far, and, well, shouldn’t they be? Better players, better coaching, the right schedule. The quality of play has been better than anybody with any sense would have expected, since almost nobody had played together before.
Many, many teams are doing the same thing.
Hopefully, soon enough, we’ll return to the normal and almost defendable hyperbole and exaggeration, and some reality will start crawling back into people’s minds.
We’ll revisit this lecture/tirade/sermon in December. Until then, can we take a breath and read and research and open minds and enjoy what’s good and get over what’s bad and pray for the transfer portal to be fixed very soon and targeting rules to be changed and much, much, much better announcers?
Yes we can.