Who's going to win this week's Central Georgia high school football games?
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Last week
10-7, 58.8 percent
For the season
305-92, 76.8 percent
Within 7 of the spread
3, 80 for the season
Upset specials/perfect spread
1-1/0
Maximum spread for The Sports Report predictions is 39 points.
It’s pretty clear, no help from last week, that the goal of 80 percent accuracy shall not be reached.
In the playoffs, especially after the first week, it’s not necessarily that there are surprises. It’s the level.
Nobody saw Bleckley County getting boatraced at home. Few saw only seven points coming from Dublin or Houston County, even on the road, and in good weather.
And Macon County kicking a field goal in overtime for a road win? Nope.
In the quarterfinals and semifinals, the only eyebrow-raiser is a margin of victory, or loss.
We’ll see some funky stuff in about every game: double reverse, wideout/back pass, flea flicker, some tweaks in blocking schemes, different blitzes, mildly different looks and schemes.
And for all those yahoos grumbling lately about seeing tears in football, rest assured. There will be ugly crying tomorrow night on every field, on buses and in locker rooms. People who don’t get it – and many, that’s a majority of folks in so many areas – still won’t get it.
Those who do and watch it will start blinking a little harder themselves. Hard work + dreams + some substance = emotion.
Class 5A
No. 2 Creekside, 11-1, R5/1, at No. 8 Warner Robins, 9-3, R2/1
Here we go again, for the third straight year. The first two meetings were rough for Creekside, losing 40-15 in the semis and 31-28 in OT in the quarters. This one will be another tight one, most likely, with the Seminoles ranked higher and favored yet again. Creekside – which may have a nice crowd making a decent drive on a sunny day - is off of a 463-yard rushing night, with 228 yards from Roderick McCray and 123 from Travis Terrell. Warner Robins’ defense will have to bow up and get off the field against two of the top 13 rushers in 5A, and the Demons haven’t faced a bunch of powerful run teams. Warner Robins does not post public stats, but Rasean Dinkins will have to have a Rasean Dinkins game, as will the rest of the D. It’s silly to pick against the Demons, who were 13-point underdogs last year. Still …
TSR pick: Creekside by 3
Class 4A
No. 5T Perry, 10-2, R2/2, at No. 12 Stephenson, 10-2, R6/1
The Panthers are trying to be road warriors after having the last three season end in the postseason at The Panther Pit. Perry is off its best road win under head coach Kevin Smith, an impressive night in a variety of ways, led by the offensive patience with the return of QB Colter Ginn when it would’ve been easy to try to prove something at some point. And goodness, how about Perry’s defense? Holding Bainbridge to less than 70 yards rushing is astounding. It faces a 2,000-yard rusher in Devin Ingrma. Of course, it means little if there’s a hangover.
TSR pick: Perry by 11
Class 3A
No. 2 Cedar Grove, R5/1, 7-5, at No. 3 Mary Persons, 11-1, R2/1
Welcome probably the best 7-5 team in the state to The Pitt(s). Cedar Grove is 7-3 against Georgia teams, the losses to No. 7 in 7A by 5, to No. 3 in 7A by 21, and No. 2 in 7A by 8, all on the road. The trip to Forysth is more important, but won’t be daunting, although a standing-room only crowd covering the hill couldn’t hurt the Bulldogs, who face a stellar offense that does damage by air and on ground. The Saints have as many state championships since 2016 – 4 – as the Bulldogs have trips to the finals in program history, so Mary Persons will need a little home-stadium magic.
TSR pick: Cedar Grove by 11
Class A/Division II
No. 5 Macon County, 10-2, R6/3, at No. 11T Telfair County, 9-2, R4/2
Telfair County is in rare air, its first quarterfinal since 1993 – and second one ever - and sixth state playoff home game ever. It’s easy to foresee some nerves playing a role against a playoff-veteran team that’s coming in hot after winning a road playoff game on a field goal in overtime –and that clause right there, Macon County winning on the road with an OT FG, is a whopper and perhaps sign of karma – and is now a road team.
TSR pick: Macon County by 8
GIAA
Semifinals
Class 4A
No. 5 Tattnall, 5-6, at No. 1 FPD, 7-3-1 (beat Strong Rock 23-13)
When they played three weeks ago, it went back and forth and went down to the final 20 seconds, with playmakers making plays, along with plenty of others. FPD is healthier now than then, but Tattnall rebounded from a two-game losing streak to end undefeated Bethlehem Christian’s season last week on the road. As good a season as Tattnall RB Antone Johnson is having, FPD’s versatility and balance on offense – Jakhari Williams doesn’t need to run a lot to win, but that he can run a lot is a tough issue for defenses – is the difference. Keep an eye on new things the Trojans will break out, because they’ll have to break some things out. And they’ll certainly need the composure that was lacking a year ago in the playoffs against Stratford. Both teams will be a little itchy.
TSR pick: FPD by 15
Class 3A
No. 5 Pinewood Christian, 5-6, at No. 1 John Milledge, 11-0
*Yaw – nope, sorry, did that last week, and no matter how fitting it is, can’t do it again. Pinewood Christian has given up 52 49, 54, and 61 points in games this season. Granted, the Patriots scored 68 last week to score 68-61, but the enjoyment ends there.
TSR pick: John Milledge by 34
Class AA
No. 3 Briarwood, 8-3, at No. 2 Gatewood, 9-2
Both teams have quality win and losses. Gatewood topped Brentwood 17-8 on the road in the middle of September, and the Gators have been stronger and more consistent since then.
TSR pick: Gatewood by 14