Who's going to win this week's Central Georgia GHSA and GISA playoff games?
By Michael A. Lough
The Sports Report
centralgasports@gmail.com
Last week: 11-4
Season: 278-77, 78.31 percent
Within 7 points of margin: 3, 84 for the season
A note: The Sports Report policy is to max out picks at 39 points, although some games could earn a predicted margin of victory in the 40s and 50s.
GHSA
Class 6A
Northside (R2/2, 9-3) at No. 3 Hughes (R4/1, 11-1)
This is the game thatâs a concern, because when Northside has played a ranked team, itâs tended to get bruised: 49-7 by Warner Robins, 52-7 by Colquitt County, and 41-7 by Lee County. There was the 28-14 win over then-No. 3/3A Peach County, which hasnât had a normal Peach County season besides being unranked and knocking off No. 1 last week. The Eagles have been good in the playoffs as a favorite and at home. Hughes â a 27-0 winner in last yearâs first-round meeting at home with the Eagles - has a burly defense, is 6-1 at home this year after going 4-1 last year, two superb seasons after going 2-8 overall in 2019. Hughesâ defense has allowed only 90 points, and thatâll be too much for Northsideâs improving offense.
TSR pick: Hughes by 24
Class 5A
No. 4 Warner Robins (R1/2, 11-1) at Jones County (R4/1, 10-2)
It wonât be about the absurd crowd â so dazzling, even the visitors side will be full â and the bands and just atmosphere with enough juice to light up a few counties. Itâs not about Jones County avenging last yearâs game. Itâs about football. Period. The only relevance to last year is introducing Jones Countyâs younger-now-older returning players to that level. The Greyhounds have been in some funky playoff games, between multiple onside kicks and opponents helping the Greyhounds a bit. The gap is certainly closer, it would appear, than last year, when Jones County may not quite have been ready for that semifinal stage, and Warner Robins played like it built the semifinal stage. Warner Robins QB Christon Lane is underrated, Fred Perry is a major multi-faceted weapon, and the defense replaced so many quality players, but you canât tell. Jones County shrugged off early losses like they never happened, and can match Warner Robins, for the most part, weapon-wise with QB John Alan Richter, WR Zion Ragins, and RBs Javion Bond and Drew Jones, among others.
The best part of this game: neither coaching staff is too clenched to do anything on a Friday night. Anything. They ainât scared. You have any idea how rare that is? Yeah, itâs glorious. Keep an eye on special teams, and kicking (edge to Jones County). So while those crammed into the Barking Lot will see loads of talented players and two well-coached teams, theyâre also likely to see a few âhooooly crap, did you see that?â plays and calls.
TSR pick: Warner Robins by 9
Class 4A
No. 4 Cedartown (R7/1, 10-1) at No. 7 Perry (R4/1, 11-1)
Perry is at home. In the quarterfinals. Third straight home playoff game. Again. Second straight year. In the programâs history, the Panthers had four home playoff games. Four. The regions are pretty similar, as is the recent history. Both teams have weapons, but Perry may have a few more. Daequan Wright counts as two. The key is how Perryâs offensive line handles a defense with three players combining for 45.5 tackles for loss, and that has 11 more sacks than the Panthers. Will it be standing-room only at The Panther Pit? For an historic game? Will those who show up go home happy? Theyâll likely go home exhausted.
TSR pick: Perry by 5
Class 3A
Peach County (R2/2, 8-3) at No. 3 Pierce County (R1/1, 9-2)
One of the most stable programs in Central Georgia has this year been a little squirrelly, between a mediocre running game and a two-quarterback system and losing â gulp â by two touchdowns at home and extracting another home win from, well, where one extracts wins from losses. And then the Trojans bow up and beat undefeated No. 1 on the road? With the No. 2 quarterback having become No. 1 a few weeks earlier? The alma mater of Stetson Bennett has been in the top 5 all year in 3A, and hasnât given up a touchdown since Oct. 22, including a 20-0 shutout over region rival and co-quarterfinalist Appling County for the region title.
TSR pick: Pierce County by 13
Class AA
No. 8 Northeast (R3/2, 9-3) at No. 10 Swainsboro (R2/1, 9-2)
The Raiders should have a good scouting report, Swainsboro having played Washington County and Dublin the last two years, and lost to Dodge County in last yearâs first round. Swainsboro will have some familiarity, too. Of course, seeing that the Tigers have 51 rushing touchdowns is a fairly simple scouting report. Northeast has an edge in a down-to-the-wire game, but the Raiders have also kept a few games closer than they shouldâve been. Is this the game that kicking is a problem? Northeast has only 22 PAT kicks on 49 touchdowns, and connected on only a few conversions. Both teams have some size, but Swainsboroâs defense has a balanced offense to slow down.
TSR pick: Swainsboro by 11
No. 4 Fitzgerald (R1/2, 10-2) at No. 5 Putnam County (R4/1, 12-0)
Biggest game in Putnam County history in a lifetime or two? Yessir. Fitzgerald is a regular this deep in the playoffs, and Putnam County is nowhere near a regular this deep in the playoffs. The contrasts are many, starting with Fitzgerald scoring a little more than half a game what Putnam County gets, but the Purple Hurricanes have also played a stronger schedule that includes quarterfinalists Irwin County and Turner County (Class A Public) and Pierce County (Class 3A), plus ranked Dodge County twice. The War Eagles have had blowouts and shutouts, but also have won four games of two possessions or less, including last weekâs teeth-pulling 28-24 win over Lovett. They canât afford that hole this week, even at home.
TSR pick: Putnam County by 3 (upset special)
Class A Public
No. 3 Macon County (R5/1, 11-0) at No. 1 Irwin County (R2/1, 10-2)
Prepared for a quarterfinal? Both teams here are, as much if not more than anybody still left, in any class. Moreso Macon County, which has knocked off five ranked teams, from No. 3 Clinch County 26-0 in the opener to No. 10 ECI 42-10 last week. Macon Countyâs last major threat was in Game 10, a 21-13 win over No. 7 Chattahoochee County. Irwin County has two opponents still playing. Irwin Country trailed Lincoln County in the second round, but Demarkas Lundy and Bryce Clements brought the Indians back in a big way for their eighth straight win. The defending state champsâ two losses are to AA Fitzgerald by three and 7A Tift County by two. Irwin County has won 29 of its last 30 home games.
TSR pick: Irwin County by 5
Class A Private
No. 3 Prince Avenue Christian (R8/1, 11-1) at No. 9 FPD (R1/1, 10-2)
Big? Itâs FPDâs final GHSA home game, and it goes against a private school thatâs likely staying in the GHSA, since itâs been there since starting in 2005 and has been a state contender since 2011, under former FPD head coach Mark Farriba, now at Stratford. The Wolverines are the defending champs, have scored more than 500 points for the fourth straight year, and have reached the semifinals five of the last six years. Prince Avenue has a stronger, albeit shorter tradition, and is pass-heavy, while FPD has more balance. Can FPD make history in what should be an overflow, maybe record crowd?
TSR pick: Prince Avenue Christian by 10
GISA
(Seeds)
Class AAA
No. 5 Tiftarea (6-5) at No. 1 John Milledge (10-0)
The Trojans havenât lost since Nov. 30, 2018. Is it time, with veteran head coach Erik Soliday on the other sidelines?
TSR pick: John Milledge by 29
No. 3 Westfield (8-2) at No. 2 Pinewood (10-1)
The main common denominator: big losses to John Milledge, Pinewood by 35 in Game 2 and Westfield by 33 in the regular-season finale. Can Westfieldâs defense, giving up 11 more points a game, bow up on the road? Can Pinewood be steady late in a rare close four-quarter game?
TSR pick: Pinewood by 5
Class AA
No. 4 Gatewood (5-6) at No. 1 Brentwood (9-1)
A year ago, they played for the state title. Defending champ Gatewood is clearly down, but still has some players from that team unlikely to go quietly. Brentwood is ready to succeed Gatewood.
TSR pick: Brentwood by 21