Last week: 21-10

Season: 202-62, 76.52

Within 7 points of margin: 4; 58 for the season

Upset specials: None picked

A note: The Sports Report policy is to max out picks at 39 points although some games could earn a predicted margin of victory in the 40s and 50s.

 

Class 6A
Houston County, 5-5, R1/4, at Evans, 7-2, R3/1

          A Houston County win isn’t much of an upset, the Bears and Knights region rivals before the four-year classification change. Houston County won by 32, 26, 11, and 31. Can Houston County go 7-0 against Evans?

The Sports Report pick: Houston County by 7

Class 5A
Jonesboro, 5-5, R3/4, at No. 2 Warner Robins, 9-1, R1/1

          For the final three quarters, this will be a fairly typical 1 vs. 4 game. The Demons should get a chance to get starters off the field in the fourth quarter. Should.

TSR pick: Warner Robins by 29
Riverdale, 7-3, R3/3, at Veterans, 8-2, R2/2

          Veterans came off a thumping by Warner Robins a year ago and gave No. 6 Stockbridge fits. This time, the Warhawks are more mature, at home, and a clear favorite.
TSR pick: Veterans by 19

South Effingham, 6-4, R2/4, at No. 7 Jones County, 9-1 R4/1

          The Greyhounds’ 30-point loss to Stockbridge was their worst since 56-26 to No. 3 Buford in the 2016 second round, and Stockbridge isn’t Buford. The right humbling Friday at the right time? If not, it’s probably the right opponent anyway.

TSR pick: Jones County by 17
Class 4A
Luella, 4-6, R4/4, at No. 7 West Laurens, 9-1, R2/1

          The good news for Luella is that 95 percent of the drive to Dexter is on the interstate, so the ride home … Well, you get the point.

TSR pick: West Laurens by 29 
Hampton, 5-5, R4/3, at Perry, 6-4, R2/2

          Hampton, in its sixth season, is making its playoff debut. Perry hasn’t won a playoff game since 2007, winning the first two at home that year. This won’t be a smooth game.
TSR pick: Perry by 19

Mary Persons, 5-5, R2/3, at Eastside, 7-3, R4/2

          The Bulldogs pulled that finale against Howard out of their … tradition, and get a good opener, facing a team that has one win over a team with a non-losing record. But the Eagles went 10-0/12-1 last year.
TSR pick: Mary Persons by 11

Upson-Lee, 4-6, R2/4 at No. 2 Woodward Academy, 10-0, R4/1

          Just making the playoffs is a good experience for players who are returning, even if the actual experience was an unpleasant one.
TSR pick: Woodward by 35

Baldwin, 4-6, R3/3, at Cairo, 8-2, R1/2

          The Syrupmakers are on the plus-240 in scoring. Baldwin’s first-round opponent last year was a shaky Perry team. A very different first round.

TSR pick: Cairo by 27

Class 3A
Brantley County, 5-5, R2/4, at No. 1 Peach County, 9-1, R4/1
          The bad news for Brantley County, situated east of Waycross, is how far it has to go to play a team that has had running clocks in every game since it lost, some clocks starting to sprint in the third quarter.

TSR pick: Peach County by 39

Westside, 6-4, R4/3 at No. 8 Appling County, 8-2, R2/2

          How quickly can/did Westside put the sting of a 68-21 loss at home in front of not-many-folks in the trash can? And can it get its first win over a ranked team since beating West Laurens in 2015? And beat legendary coach Rick Tomberlin?
TSR pick: Appling County by 28

Central, 3-7, R4/4 at No. 3 Pierce County, 10-0, R2/1

          See “Upson-Lee” above, and probably worse, Pierce County outscoring opponents by 31 points a game and holding all but three opponents to single digits.

TSR pick: Pierce County by 38  

Class AA
Early County, 5-5, R3/4 at No. 5 Dublin, 9-1 R3/1

          The Irish, barring something late, will have a full complement, and will need it against one of the four-seeds-better-than-a-lot-of-threes-and-twos.

TSR pick: Dublin by 28
Fitzgerald, 7-3, R1/3 at No. 8 Bleckley County, 7-3, R3/2

          The Royals are off one of their worst losses, for a variety of reasons, in several years, and face a team that lost to first and second place in the region by 10 points total.
TSR pick: Fitzgerald by 18

Dodge County, 4-6, R3/3 at No. 6 Thomasville, 6-4, R1/2

          The Indians had last week off, and are a better-than-average four seed. Thomasville isn’t the strongest region champ in the field. If Dodge County fans make that tolerable drive …
TSR pick: Dodge County by 9 (upset special)

Washington County, 7-3, R3/4 at No. 7 Brooks County, 6-4, R1/1

          The head coaches know each other, so preparation won’t be a problem. Can’t the Golden Hawks put together another burly defensive effort on the road? Pull something out of the gameplan hat?

TSR pick: Washington County by 5
Putnam County, 5-5, R8/4, at No. 4 Hapeville-Charter, 8-1-1, R6/1

          Hapeville Charter is known to throw it around, but more impressive is that it’s allowed 91 points – the War Eagles passed allowing that in the first two weeks - against four ranked opponents and three bigger programs, and coughed up only 37 in seven region games.

TSR pick: Hapeville Charter by 39

Class A Private

(First number is GHSA seed, second is AJC ranking)
No. 22. Stratford, 4-6, at No. 11/6 Prince Avenue Christian, 8-2

          A running team in a running region now faces a “five-star” quarterback who has committed to Oklahoma.

TSR pick: Prince Avenue Christian by 35

No. 24 FPD, 5-5, at No. 9/5 Wesleyan, 8-2

          Wesleyan is the best team in the third- or fourth-best region, but not quite dominant. FPD is probably a little better than 5-5, and may be able to keep it closer than the average last-team-in.

TSR pick: Wesleyan by 25

Class A Public
19. Macon County, 6-4, at No. 14 Turner County, 6-4

          Turner County is the rare team with a winning record that’s given up more points – 41 – than it’s scored. The Rebels have been outscored 71-7 in the final two games, against No. 6 composite Wilcox County and No. 1 Irwin County.

TSR pick: Macon County by 4 (upset special)

24. Taylor County, 5-5, at No. 9/9 Manchester, 8-2

          Records and rankings aside, this may not be a bad game if Taylor County’s defense turns in an upper-level performance. Manchester won 44-20 in the season opener, but the Vikings have been pretty inconsistent.

TSR pick: Manchester by 23

GISA

Class AAA

Westfield, 3-8, at Loganville Christian, 4-6

          Loganville Christian is plus-80 in points and Westfield minus-226.

TSR pick: Loganvile Christian by 32