MMQB: The Polls

Top 5

Division I

1.Warner Robins

          They had the week off, and the gap ahead of No. 2, a new team this week, has narrowed. Alas if things remain the status quo region-standings-wise, and they both win in the postseason, Central Georgia’s No. 1 and No. 2 wouldn’t play until the state championship. And if that happens, please let the Dome – it’s still ‘the Dome’, or ‘the dome’ – not be available.

2. Jones County

          For all the talk of the Greyhounds’ offense, it’s worth noting that they’re eighth in Class 5A in points allowed. Their defense is pretty underrated, and special teams are pretty good. Those final two elements close the gap with No. 1.

3. Mary Persons

          And there is logic in the argument – OK, the top four teams are all pretty close. The Bulldog defense has improved. Don’t look now, but they’re third in 4A in points allowed, and they’ve two ranked 3A teams, two 6A teams (albeit 2-7 teams). Desmond Williams is among the top dozen defensive players in Central Georgia.

4. Northside

          For those wondering why the Eagles remain ranked anywhere, note that their losses are to teams ranked No. 1 and No. 9/10 in 6A, No. 3 and 5 in 5A, and No. 4 in 3A. To think the Eagles couldn’t hammer nearly every other area school is absurd. And Lee County is the only team of the five that doesn’t want Northside again. As per the Maxwell Ratings, Northside had – entering last week – the seventh-toughest schedule in the state, and lost to those teams by 35 points. They may be a fringe Class 6A top-10 team, but they’re certainly among the top seven in Central Georgia.

5. Veterans

          The game with Thomas County Central went as expected, so the Warhawks still get the nod over Upson-Lee, but the gap narrows. Only two non-region wins came over assured playoff teams, but they’re finding ways to win, albeit ugly at times, not surprising for a team in transition. A rematch with Upson-Lee – which can happen only in our heads or computers – sure would be fun.

 

Top 10

Division II (3A-2A-A-other)

1. Peach County

          Lather, rinse, repeat. Sorry, but there’s no suspense in this region until the Trojans play Westside and it’s a close game. Peach County has won 19 straight region games, and by an average of 45 this year, 47.5 last year and 32.3 in 2016. Make it: arrive, drill, depart.

2. Westside

          The slobbering for some before they got on the bus after smacking Pike County by 33. See, this is the rare chance Westside has had to play Peach County at the end of the season with both undefeated in region play. And they have matching overall records. The Seminoles have allowed 29 points in the last five games.

3. Dublin

          Dublin can pull the double-dip it hasn’t pulled since 2011 with a win over Washington County: a 9-win regular season and the outright region championship. And it’s been since 2007 that Dublin went undefeated in region, a sign of the toughness of the regions.

4. Dodge County

          Again, Dodge County has the final week off and watches others beat up on each other for region seedings. Last year, those battles were for second, because the Indians had clinched. They can finish second with a Dublin win or a not-by-enough Washington County win.

5. Washington County

          The Golden Hawks sure didn’t take Northeast for granted, returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown and keeping the foot on the gas to actually give the Raiders their worst loss of the season. The House of Pain will be home to some electricity when Dublin visits on Friday. The Irish have won four straight in the series, and took a 27-26 road win in 2006.

6. Mount de Sales

          The Cavs has “clinched” its second GHSA playoff spot as earlier as any of its Macon brethren have done, and Mount de Sales has been impressively one of the area’s most consistent teams. Worth noting: The Cavs are getting into an offensive groove. Granted, the region is low-heavy, but you still have to execute to score.

7. Tattnall

          Man, that 55-0 loss to Dublin and 45-27 humbling by Trinity Christian-Sharpsburg a week later sure do seem like an awful long time ago, huh? The Trojans have won five straight.

8. John Milledge

          The Trojans may have gotten that nice and close wakeup call win just in time to refocus a little for the postseason. The only other undefeated Class AAA GISA team is Tiftarea.

10. Hancock Central

          Boy, they were happy in Sparta all weekend. A long bout of joy happens when you break a 21-game losing streak against a former perennial Class A power, Lincoln County. The win clinches the Bulldogs’ most regular-season wins since 6-3-1 in 2006, so they may have some burly momentum heading into the postseason.

 

MMQB: Around Central Georgia

 

Clarity to come to Class A, finally … well, almost

          There’s a lot of sweating going on for three Central Georgia Class A teams, and suspense for seeding for a  few others.

          Reminder: Region champs get moved up in the rankings, which can knock down teams with actually higher ranking numbers.

          Region 7-A is one of five with subdivisions, and thus play-ins this week. The regions with a public and private school playing each other for the championship make things interesting, with that region champ moving up and higher-rated teams sliding down. Of the other four, three have public-vs.-private region championships.

          Information on assorted region tiebreakers is apparently kept under wraps for a day or two, but Mount de Sales does have a shot at a first-round bye if it beats Hancock Central, public schools win region titles and there are no private-school upsets. Oddly, if No. 23 Stratford can upset No. 9 Aquinas …

          Tattnall is likely to need some public-school help, too, if it loses to Greene County.

But from Region 7, Mount de Sales and Hancock Central are in.

          Dooly County locked itself up a spot with the win over Manchester, and is No. 15. Macon County gave itself at least a little margin of error with its upset of Brookstone to jump to No. 20. Now it’s ranked higher by two spots than Manchester, so their battle in Montezuma is big.

Taylor County is No. 23 Public is on the bubble, and visits No. 28 Private Pacelli, which is out of the playoff race. The Vikings will be pulling for their Macon County buddies while hoping to avoid the upset themselves.

          Nevertheless, there’ll be coaches checking scores Friday night before they reach the fieldhouse.

 

Clarifying the polls and stats

          In addition to the above Central Georgia polls, submitted after research and thought, there are two primary state human polls, and a computer poll.

          The Georgia Sports Writers Association and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution are the human polls.

The GSWA poll has media folks from all over the state involved, so there’s a broad viewpoint, and it includes teams getting votes, which is good.

          The AJC is less broad, but has some resources throughout the state.

          Both utilize eyes and ears and news and context and usually a heaping helping of common sense.

          And then there is the Maxwell Ratings, which are solely computer based. That’s the one that, for example, moved Mary Persons up to No. 1 two weeks ago in Class 4A.

          The Maxwell process is numbers-heavy and pretty complicated. A team can have a negative rating, soooo it “tells us” that, say, No. 44 Dodge County would beat No. 377 Wilkinson County (with a minus 5.13) by 65 points.

          If you list the Central Georgia teams based on the ranking, it’s pretty close to what any objective observer would come up with. Mary Persons might be the best team in 4A, but is Mary Persons the sixth best team in the state? With a 90th strength of schedule?

          Is Warner Robins the seventh best team? Are the Bulldogs and Demons 11 points better than Jones County?

          The Maxwell Ratings are very interesting and offer a view worth discussing, but in reality, the two human polls offer more credibility because of what they take into account that a computer program doesn’t.

          Worth noting: The Georgia High School Football Daily Newsletter – very much worth your time if you put time into high school football: email for the daily 4 a.m. email delivery – offers a weekly composite of the polls for each GHSA class, with the GSWA, AJC, GPB, Score Atlanta, MaxPreps, and Maxwell Ratings. Any team that makes the top 10 gets points.

          MaxPreps uses a human poll for its national top 25, and it “ranks” every team in the nation – which it does in several sports. It doesn’t know the difference between associations – like the GHSA and GISA – or private or public schools.

          For example, Maxpreps ranked Tiftarea, a GISA school, 76th in the state, ahead of the likes of Eagle’s Landing Christian, Vidalia, Baldwin, Swainsboro, and, well, Tucker, which is a composite No. 5 Class 6A team.

          More iffy are MaxPreps stats rankings, which can be extraordinarily misleading because of the number of coaches – and it’s a large number, certainly in Central Georgia - who don’t make sure up-to-date stats are input in a timely manner, if at all, to the website.

          For whatever cracks there are in any of the polls’ process, there is no schmoozing or click-baiting or connections involved in the rankings. All polls are debatable, but they’re pretty close to consensus.

 

Still undefeated

          Two remain: Mary Persons and John Milledge.

         

Still looking

          Twiggs County and Rutland appear destined for the nightmare record.

Region projections, Week 2

          Little has changed since last week’s first projections of region playoff teams, other than Northside solidified No. 3 in 1-6A with its heartbreaking loss to Valdosta.

Sure, we’ll find out soon enough, but what fun is not analyzing and guessing? So, The Sports Report is predicting outright the Central Georgia GHSA region playoff teams and seeds. An asterisk indicates that the position has been officially determined.

          Region 1-6A: 3. Northside*

          Region 1-5A: 1. Warner Robins; 2. Veterans

          Region 4-5A: 2. Jones County

          Region 4-3A: 1. Peach County; 2. Westside

          Region 3-AA: 1. Dublin; 2. Dodge County; 3. Washington County; 4. Northeast

          Region 5-AA: None. Lamar County (3-6, 1-4) was, as predicted, eliminated last week. The Trojans would lose any tiebreaker – which is unlikely – with Spencer.

          Region 8-AA: 4. Maybe Monticello. Monticello (4-5, 3-3) looks to slide in at No. 4, having beaten Banks County, which has the same record. Unless the region has some funky tiebreaker other than head-to-head. The Hurricanes visit Social Circle (4-5, 1-5), which has a minus 32 point differential to minus 40 for Monticello. Banks County hosts Elbert County (6-3, 4-2), so it’s still TBA.

          Region 4-A: Taylor County and Macon County are now on the rankings fringe at 24 and 25, a few spots behind No. 19 Dooly County. Dooly County hosts Manchester (5-3, 3-2/18 Public), Macon County welcomes Brookstone (6-2, 4-1/14 Private), and Marion County (8-0, 5-0/2 Public) is at Taylor County in the crossovers. That’s OK news for the Bobcats, tolerable news for the Bulldogs, not good news at all for the Vikings.

          Region 7-A: As per the latest rankings, Mount de Sales is in, and Tattnall and Stratford are on the fringe. The Trojans can get the automatic bid by winning the region title, and Stratford basically needs to win its crossover game. Hancock Central is pretty safe at No. 16.

         

(422 schools listed, overall ranking and rating included, and what last week’s ranking was is to the right) The entire statewide list is here

                                                         

7. Mary Persons           81.36 6

8. Warner Robins        78.52          7

24. Peach County         67.30         29

25. Jones County          67.27          22

34. Northside               62.47          32

 

39. Dublin                    60.67         42

42. Dodge County        58.88          44

48. Washington Co.     56.54          49

51. Veterans                  56.12          52

54. Upson-Lee              55.09          61

 

78. Howard                  49.33         88

81. Baldwin                   48.85          80

95. West Laurens         47.21           91

97. Westside                 46.98         105

115. Perry                      43.54          121

152. Houston County   36.33         157

195. Southwest             29.35          205

214. Northeast             28.54          209

220. Bleckley County   26.50         227

221. Central                  26.24         221